Winchester, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

945
FXUS63 KLMK 071704
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
104 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Very isolated shower and storm chance this afternoon. Mostly dry
  weather expected.

* Drier conditions through the weekend, with daily high temperatures
  in the upper 80s to near 90 through next week.

* Storm chances increase again early next week as cold front
  approaches the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Morning satellite and observations reveal mostly sunny skies across
the forecast area.  Temperatures were int he upper 70s east of I-75
with lower 80s across much of central and western KY.  Diurnal Cu
field is starting to develop and should be in full swing by this
afternoon.  As temperatures warm into the upper 80s, we`ll see
plenty of instability develop.  However, weak wind shear and a lack
of focused synoptic scale forcing will likely preclude much in the
way of convective development.  Still, we could see some very
isolated to widely scattered convection fire across the region.  The
most likely area would be out along our border with WFO JKL, just
east of I-75 corridor.

Current forecast has this well covered, and only minor edits were
made to the short term grids.  Updated forecasts and products have
already exited production.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Clear skycover and calm winds are across the region early this
morning, which has helped with some patchy fog development. Expect
any fog to burn off shortly after sunrise. GOES nighttime
microphysics channel shows some mid to high level clouds streaming
across IL and IN this morning, which could hold together as it
tracks southeastward into our area later this morning. Due to this,
will bump up cloud cover a bit from the NBM for this morning,
especially in our southern IN counties. However, no impacts are
expected.

For the rest of today, we warm well into the upper 80s again, and
can`t rule out some highs around 90 in our typical warmer spots.
This afternoon will be partly sunny as we should see a cu field
develop, along with plenty of instability. However, we will lack a
strong forcing mechanism for today as the upper trough shifts off to
our northeast. Expect a mostly dry day across the area, but still
can`t completely rule out a few very isolated showers and storms
this afternoon. The 00z HREF PB >40dBZ do suggest some pop-ups this
afternoon, though we will have little to no shear for storms to work
with. Given the very limited coverage, will keep PoPs silent with a
10-15% chance.

Mostly clear skycover is expected again for tonight, with lows in
the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

===== Friday through Sunday Night =====

A consistent forecast is to be expected for Friday and into the
weekend as sfc high pressure to our east will keep warm return flow
across the region and a strengthening upper ridge influences a dry
stretch. Daily highs are forecast to near normal or slightly above,
with most areas expected to reach the upper 80s, but some low 90s
can`t be ruled out, especially in the urban settings. We should have
partly to mostly sunny days for the weekend, with diurnal cu fields
blossoming each afternoon. The overnight periods will clear out,
with lows also near normal with upper 60s and lower 70s.

===== Monday through Wednesday =====

By Monday of next week, the upper ridge will have shifted off to the
northeast, with an upper trough slowly pivoting across the northern
US. This trough will support a weak cold front to trail
southeastward and through the Ohio Valley by mid-week, which will
coincide with our area getting a richer moisture fetch. While Monday
is expected to be mostly dry, we could see a few isolated pop-ups in
the afternoon as we begin to realize some better moisture in a
diurnally-driven unstable environment. However, the overall better
and more widespread shower and storm chances look to make a return
for Tuesday and Wednesday as the front approaches, and eventually
passes through the area. PWATs could end up closer to 2 inches,
which would be around or above the 90th percentile from the BNA
sounding database. We`ll likely see some heavy rain showers, but
with SBCAPE values possibly exceeding 2500 J/kg thanks to temps in
the upper 80s and lower 90s, we`ll likely see a good amount of
thunderstorm coverage as well. The 00z suite was not as excited
about shear parameters, so still uncertain about severe potential.
Regardless, Tue/Wed appear to be the days for the highest shower and
storm probs of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Diurnal Cu field is in progress across the region.  A few storms
have popped up along the I-75 corridor and this activity should
continue thorugh the afternoon.  As of this writing, KLEX/KRGA seem
to have the highest chances of storms in the near term.  Could see a
few storms pop up near KSDF later this afternoon, but lower
confidence here precludes a mention at this time.  Elsewhere, VFR
conditions are expected this afternoon and evening with light and
variable winds.  The outlook for Friday calls for VFR conditions and
a continued light/variable wind.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE........MJ
SHORT TERM....CJP
LONG TERM.....CJP
AVIATION......MJ